Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.748025 3.775013 5.245784 7.585416 1.137374e+01 1.758051e+01 29.267612
2025-03-30 1.777972 2.810982 4.599671 8.193763 1.603933e+01 3.488952e+01 95.418176
2025-04-06 1.144554 1.997953 3.696334 7.803541 1.945267e+01 6.057266e+01 317.944474
2025-04-13 0.759917 1.429211 2.913265 7.096276 2.212600e+01 1.012002e+02 1339.664539
2025-04-20 0.573922 1.163632 2.626369 7.506208 3.082943e+01 2.478941e+02 29789.513776
2025-04-27 0.464561 1.013757 2.539102 8.638736 4.970375e+01 9.687860e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.386302 0.901870 2.495658 10.151401 8.660272e+01 7.609281e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.315113 0.775296 2.324828 11.021331 1.383823e+02 1.740343e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.248828 0.633364 2.003441 10.568527 1.795792e+02 1.003003e+08 NaN
2025-05-25 0.195880 0.510349 1.675707 9.548724 2.059801e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.167745 0.453642 1.582939 10.277836 3.476878e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.144944 0.405202 1.494428 10.987490 6.101303e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.126881 0.367960 1.444837 12.310699 1.379698e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.111243 0.333173 1.384008 13.553185 3.467972e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.094110 0.286503 1.225190 12.924577 5.644969e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.079160 0.243320 1.058607 11.681997 7.362197e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.070626 0.222314 1.009816 12.511571 2.494821e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.065064 0.211169 1.014946 14.739669 3.648386e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.060503 0.202496 1.031354 17.789293 1.012518e+11 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.055190 0.188689 1.001147 19.613440 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.048910 0.168596 0.908918 18.740352 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.042914 0.148192 0.801706 16.717274 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.039662 0.139380 0.780349 18.222688 NaN NaN NaN